IDC slashed its worldwide smartphone shipment forecast for 2025 from projected growth of 2.3 per cent to 0.6 per cent, citing tariff volatility and macro-economic challenges.
In its latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, the company cut its forecast from February, pointing to high uncertainty globally as well as challenges around inflation and unemployment across many regions which will lead to a slowdown and consumer spending.
In total, shipments for the year are now expected to hit 1.2 billion units.
IDC said growth will remain in low single digits throughout the forecast period of 2024 through to 2029. A compound annual growth rate of 1.4 per cent between the five years will be fuelled by increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles and cannibalisation from used smartphones.
The modest shipment growth in 2025 will be driven by the US and China, with the latter forecast for 3 per cent year-on-year increase driven by government subsidies, which will stimulate demand and continue to boost Android.
Rivalling Apple smartphones are forecast to dip 1.9 per cent due to ongoing competition with Huawei, overall economic slowdown and the majority of its devices being ineligible for government subsidies.
The company’s fortunes in the country will however improve during a widespread shopping festival which will result in heavy discounts, while significant hardware updates including the launch of iPhone 17 will fuel demand, predicted IDC.
Meanwhile, the US market is forecast to grow 1.9 per cent in 2025, pulled down from 3.3 per cent, due to tariff related price increases and global uncertainty.