The United States has officially entered uncharted demographic territory — and experts are warning that “population collapse” is looming.
In 2023, the U.S. fertility rate plummeted to an all-time low of 54.5 births per 1,000 women, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and data compiled by USAFacts. This marks a dramatic decline from the postwar peak of 122.9 births per 1,000 women in 1957 — a drop of over 55%.
The figures paint a stark picture: every single U.S. state has experienced a decline in fertility rates between 2005 and 2022. Liberal states are leading the charge, but even traditionally high-birthrate states are not immune.
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Utah, once a stronghold of large families and early motherhood, posted the steepest drop at -33.9%. Louisiana, with the smallest change, still declined by 0.3% — underscoring the nationwide nature of this trend.
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“Fertility rates are falling faster and farther than most Americans realize,” says demographer Lyman Stone, a fellow at the Institute for Family Studies. “What we’re seeing now is not just a delay in childbirth — it’s a redefinition of what adulthood and family even mean.”
The top fertility states in 2022 were South Dakota (66.5), Alaska (64.9), and Nebraska (63.6) — all still far below replacement level. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Vermont (44.3), Delaware (44.9), and Oregon (47.3) reported the lowest birth rates, reflecting broader trends of childlessness in coastal and progressive regions.
The U.S. replacement fertility rate is 2.1 births per woman, but as of the latest full-year data, the national average is hovering around 1.6 — well below the level needed to sustain population size without immigration.
Experts warn that these declines are not simply academic curiosities. Population collapse — a scenario long feared by demographers — may already be underway in slow motion.
As fewer children are born and the population ages, the U.S. faces compounding challenges: a shrinking workforce, ballooning entitlement costs, and potential geopolitical vulnerability.
Countries like Japan, South Korea, and much of Europe have already entered what some call a “fertility trap” — a cycle of declining births that becomes increasingly difficult to reverse as societal norms shift and support structures erode.
“We’re staring down a long-term crisis that most policymakers are unwilling to touch,” says Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute. “The effects will be subtle at first — slower growth, older populations — but eventually, we could face a future where entire sectors and cities simply wither.”
Some nations are attempting to fight back. Hungary, France, and Singapore have experimented with aggressive pro-natalist policies, from baby bonuses to tax incentives. In the U.S., the response has historically been piecemeal, but times are changing.
Trump-aligned officials are quietly crafting policies aimed at reversing the demographic decline — from $5,000 “baby bonuses” to reserving 30% of Fulbright scholarships for married applicants with children.
The proposals are part of a broader, emerging strategy among conservatives to tackle what they see as a civilizational crisis: the collapse of the American family.
“We need to channel the MAHA spirit and really dive deep into infertility,” said Emma Waters of the Heritage Foundation, referencing a growing cultural push to “Make America Have Again.”
The discussion, once confined to fringe policy circles, is now inching toward the mainstream. Transportation Secretary Duffy has publicly committed to prioritizing infrastructure funding for regions with higher birth and marriage rates, a move some critics call “social engineering” and others praise as long overdue.
Meanwhile, tensions are mounting within the conservative movement as an anticipated White House report on IVF and fertility access threatens to divide traditionalists from the more populist, pro-family wing.
The backdrop to all this? Donald Trump’s February promise to be “the fertility president.” That pledge, made in typical bombastic style, is now facing its first real policy test.
